FanPost

B1G rankings, deduced from point spreads

I examined every point spread available for future B1G conference games on sportsbook.com. I then filled in the unavailable spreads (either the teams aren't playing this year, or it's not an attractive enough game to post a line this early) by averaging their spreads vs. common opponents. Finally, I averaged each team's average spread relative to each other team's average spread, to determine a final ranking.


Wisc Neb OSU MSU PSU Mich Iowa Ill NU
Wisconsin 0 -1 -5 -8 -10.5 -10.5 -12 -11 -12.5
Nebraska 1 0 -4 -6.5 -8 -8.5 -11 -9 -10.5
OSU 5 4 0 -3.5 -4.5 -6 -7 -6 -8
MSU 8 6.5 3.5 0 -2.5 -2 -4.5 -2 -4
PSU 10.5 8 4.5 2.5 0 -0.5 -3 -0.5 -2.5
Michigan 10.5 8.5 6 2 0.5 0 -0.5 0 -2
Iowa 12 11 7 4.5 3 0.5 0 0.5 -1.5
Illinois 11 9 6 2 0.5 0 -0.5 0 -2
NU 12.5 10.5 8 4 2.5 2 1.5 2 0
 

Here are the results

Wisconsin------Nebraska------------Ohio St------------Michigan St------Penn St---Michigan/Illinois------Iowa--NU

      (0)            (+1.6)                   (+4.9)                   (+8.2)             (+9.9)             (+10.6)       (+11.9) (+12.6)

 

Expected point spreads for Northwestern's Conference Schedule:

NU (+5) @ Illinois 

Michigan @ NU (-1)

NU (+3.5) @ Iowa

Penn St @ NU (pick)

NU @ Indiana (?)

NU (+14) @ Nebraska

Minnesota @ NU (a lot)

Michigan St @ NU (+1.5)

 

Footnotes:

1. I assumed a standard 3-point home field advantage

2. I probably committed one or more basic statistical errors.

3. I didn't include the Indiana-Purdue-Minnesota crew because they had no betting lines available and are bad at football.

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