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Ranking Northwestern's Prognosticators, Week Twelve (Or, What does it even mean to make predictions that coincide closely with this comically unlikely string of events?)

It's hard to understand exactly how unlikely the things we've seen from Northwestern football actually are. Consider the end of the fourth quarter of the Michigan game. In college, 44-yard field goals aren't exactly high probability propositions under any circumstances, let alone with the clock rapidly approaching zero and the field goal unit having to enter the game on the fly. And as bad as some of the officiating we've seen this year has been, major conference college officials handle the vast majority of substitution and illegal motion issues correctly. All things considered, in order for Michigan to make it to overtime, they had to 1) hit a long field goal that 2) their kicker was unable to make his typical preparations for, and 3) the officials had to ignore rules they typically enforce with a high level of accuracy. That's pretty unlikely.

And Northwestern lost on a Hail Mary.

And it lost to those same two teams in similar last-minute circumstances last season.

And nearly every important player has been injured this year.

The probability of all of those things happening is vanishingly small. I don't even know what it means to have been good at predicting that. Anyway, here's who is.

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