FanPost

Ranking Northwestern's Prognosticators, Week Three (Or, Most people's predictions would have been better if Fitz weren't such a nice guy)

Almost everybody overestimated the 'Cats offense (or Fitz's willingness to use it for the entire game) this week, just seven days after everyone did the opposite of that. In fact, in none of the first three weeks have predictions of Northwestern's score been well centered around the actual outcome. Too soon to tell if that's more likely to be noise or something systematic about our predictors. People really zeroed in on the opponent this week, with eight people correctly predicting WMU would score 17 points. Here are the rankings for Week 3:

Much better predictions at the top this week, with three people tied for first in Week 3 at MSE = 6.00, the second lowest MSE on the season. Two of those three were a Jeff Budzien missed field goal away from being exactly right. Also, after relatively poor showings in weeks one and two, both ESPN bloggers are in the top four this week. This week's median opponent prediction should be taken with a shaker of salt, since I could only find one prediction in the time I was willing to spend looking.

In the season rankings, the big news this week is that the Median NU Prediction is moving up. MNWildcat and Rodger remain first and second, respectively, but the median prediction jumped from seventh to third, despite being the 7th, 6th, and 7th best predictor in weeks one, two, and three. Not to get all Nate Silver-y and statistical on you, but this is what's supposed to happen, since individual predictors' performances tend to vary substantially over time while the performance of the median prediction is fairly stable. I'll be at least a little surprised if the median prediction doesn't end up being the best at the end of the season. Anyway, here are the season rankings:

A final note: I've added C. E. Bell of OTE to the rankings this week. As always, if there are others I'm missing who have regularly published weekly predictions, let me know and I'll add them, too. It would also be helpful if you could point me toward their predictions for previous weeks so I can incorporate them into the season rankings.

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