A few days ago, I was greatly bemused by the "THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES" in Brian Cook's MGoBlog preview of the Northwestern-Michigan tilt. He wrote this:
Michigan by one. Sippin' On Purple's Rodger Sherman literally dies. The second part is not a part of the Kenpom prediction, at least not yet.
Alas, it was astonishingly accurate. Michigan didn't win by one - they won by 12 - but after 40, the score differential was only one point away from what Pomeroy predicted. And I died, at least a little bit, on the inside.
Northwestern has two crucial games in their final three regular season matchups if they want to make the NCAA tournament. Pomeroy's numbers predict the game at Penn State will be a 66-65 victory. He predicts that the game at Iowa will be a 75-74 loss. Let's break this down.
Pomeroy's numbers, which are always astonishingly accurate, say that:
- The Penn State and Iowa games are virtually toss-ups. The numbers could not predict a slimmer margin of victory than the one he predicts, because you cannot win by less than one.
- Northwestern will score 140 points in the two games. Northwestern's opponents will score 140 points in the two games.
- Northwestern will get our hopes up with a thrilling win at Penn State, setting up an abjectly heartbreaking loss in the season finale.
But most importantly, Pomeroy predicts that I will die. Obviously, the numbers state with almost 100 percent certainty that I will die someday, but Pomeroy predicts that it will happen much sooner, like, next Saturday. I wish Pomeroy could predict the exact method by which I will die so I could take steps to prevent it, much how his numbers tell us the probable pace and scores of games, but without that information, I assume that I will instantaneously vaporize at the exact moment the game in Iowa City ends.
Obviously, there's a very slim chance that those exact circumstances actually happen: Pomeroy's predictions are just that, and are rarely exactly accurate. But they're often close. And if they are close, help us all, because this will be unreal.