Northwestern men’s basketball winnability rankings: Counting down NU’s most difficult 2023-24 games from 30 to 1

Northwestern men’s basketball starts its quest for consecutive March Madness appearances in only 26 days. With Big Ten Basketball Media Days concluding yesterday from Minneapolis, the anticipation is palpable. In advance of NU’s season opener against Binghamton on Nov. 6, our staffers ranked all of the Wildcats’ 30 matchups in terms of winnability from 30 (the easiest) to 1 (most difficult). Take a look at the cumulative results, and feel free to chime in below!

Note: The ‘Cats’ matchup against either Mississippi State or Washington State in the Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-off Tournament was excluded because the opponent is not yet known.

No. 30: vs. Binghamton (Average: 29.63)

Northwestern’s first official game back in Welsh-Ryan Arena should be a get-right one. The Bearcats, of the America East Conference, went 13-18 a season ago and lost their top scorer in Jacob Falko.

No. 29: vs. Western Michigan (28.75)

The Broncos finished just 8-23 last year, earning a spot of No. 323 in KenPom rankings. The Wildcats should hold a significant edge over WMU.

No. 28: vs. Jackson State (28.38)

Northwestern’s only game on Peacock may not be a close affair. In 2022-23, the Tigers went 14-19, finishing No. 304 in KenPom.

No. 27: vs. Chicago State (26.88)

The Wildcats started their 2022-23 campaign with an 85-54 drubbing over an intriguing Chicago State team. Northwestern should be able to get the best of the Cougars yet again this year.

No. 26: vs. Northern Illinois (25.38)

The Huskies are another team that Northwestern handled in early November of last year. NIU is looking to improve its 13-19 record from last year.

No. 25: vs. Detroit Mercy (25.25)

The Titans concluded 2022-23 at 14-19 but actually netted a top-200 slot in KenPom. However, Detroit Mercy departs its top two scorers from last year in Antoine Davis and Gerald Liddell, so some adjusting may be in store.

No. 24: vs. Minnesota (23.63)

A conference matchup this early may seem premature, but NU has won its last two games against the Gophers. On top of that, UMN loses impressive forward Jamison Battle — not a ton of promise exists up north right now on the heels of a last-place finish in the Big Ten.

No. 23: vs. Rhode Island (23.50)

Northwestern’s first neutral-site game comes against the Rams in Uncasville, Connecticut. Rhode Island is hoping for a much better campaign following a 9-22 finish, which put the team second-to-last in the Atlantic 10.

No. 22: at DePaul (21.63)

NU defended its home city against the Blue Demons last year. This time around, they’ll make the short trek downtown to Wintrust Arena to battle with Tony Stubblefield’s squad, which is seeking its first winning season since 2018-19.

No. 21: at Minnesota (21.13)

Playing the Gophers in Minneapolis will definitely prove tougher for the ‘Cats, who haven’t won in Minnesota since 2021.

No. 20: vs. Nebraska (20.38)

The Wildcats have won seven straight against their Big Ten West rivals. Last year in Lincoln, Ty Berry exploded for 26 points on six threes; which ‘Cat may feast against the Huskers this year?

No. 19: vs. Penn State (17.88)

Penn State proved a painstaking opponent for Northwestern last year, beating NU twice — including in overtime of the Big Ten Tournament. With no Micah Shrewsberry, Jalen Pickett, Seth Lundy and a roster overhaul, though, Happy Valley may prove a land of transition this year.

No. 18: at Nebraska (17)

Northwestern has claimed its last two games in Pinnacle Bank Arena, so Chris Collins & Co. may feel right at home out in Lincoln.

No. 17: vs. Dayton (16.75)

This one has been circled for quite a while. Northwestern’s second game of the year should prove a worthwhile test against the Flyers, who went 22-12 last year — good for 79th in KenPom. Junior forward and First Team All-A10 selection DaRon Holmes II will have to be atop the pecking order for NU’s defense.

No. 16: vs. Michigan (15.88)

UM went 2-0 against the ‘Cats last year but will be sans Hunter Dickinson, Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin. The Wolverines were projected to finish 11th in the Big Ten, per the conference’s preseason poll.

No. 15: at Penn State (14.63)

This will mark Northwestern’s first game in the Bryce Jordan Center since 2021. NU hasn’t won in State College since Dec. 2016.

No. 14: vs. Arizona State (14.25)

Don’t sleep on this matchup between the Wildcats and Sun Devils out in Phoenix. Both teams ended 2022-23 ranked in the top 55 of KenPom and having made the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament.

No. 13: vs. Ohio State (13.75)

Uncertainty surrounded Chris Holtmann’s job status subsequent to a 16-19 campaign, but OSU got hot in March, reaching the final round of the Big Ten Tournament. The Buckeyes, having added Battle from Minnesota, look to rebound.

No. 12: vs. Iowa (13.5)

Northwestern pulled off one of its more memorable performances in the new Welsh-Ryan Arena when it dismantled Iowa, 80-60. The Hawkeyes depart Kris Murray, Filip Rebraca and Connor McCaffery but should still be competitive.

No. 11: vs. Illinois (10.13)

Northwestern defeated the Illini at home for the first time last year since Jan. 2019. The bigger question may be if the ‘Cats don their “Chicago’s Own” jerseys yet again for good luck.

No. 10: vs. Maryland (9.5)

The Terrapins are shaping up to be one of the more formidable teams in the Big Ten. Both Jahmir Young and Julian Reese were projected First Team All-Big Ten nominees.

No. 9: at Wisconsin (9)

Northwestern escaped with a low-scoring win against the Badgers in Madison last year. UW

No. 8: at Rutgers (8.88)

The Wildcats’ last game of the 2022-23 regular season was a dramatic win in the RAC to secure the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten. Will the Wildcats be able to make it two straight on the road against Steve Pikiell, Cliff Omoruyi and the Scarlet Knights?

No. 7: vs. Michigan State (6.38)

Following a Sweet 16 appearance last year and the return of multiple cogs, the Spartans are considered one of the better teams in the Big Ten entering this season. MSU ranked second in the preseason conference poll and even garnered four first-place votes.

No. 6: at Indiana (5.63)

Northwestern was just one of two teams to down the Hoosiers in Assembly Hall last year. The Wildcats will make the trip east to Bloomington yet again against an IU team departing stalwarts in Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jalen Hood-Schifino.

No. 5: vs. Purdue (5.5)

You can bet that there will be no better place to be than Evanston on Dec. 1, when Northwestern opens its conference slate on a Friday night against the vaunted Boilermakers. We all know what happened the last time Zach Edey and Matt Painter made the trip to WRA, after all.

No. 4: at Illinois (5)

Boo Buie scored a career-best 35 points (in the No. 4 jersey no less) the last time NU ventured to Champaign. Another spirited matchup should be in the works on the second day of January.

No. 3: at Maryland (3)

UMD went an astonishing 16-1 in the Xfinity Center a season ago. One of those 16 wins was a 75-59 dismantling of Northwestern; the ‘Cats will look to avenge that result in one of their toughest games of the year.

No. 2: at Michigan State (2.25)

One of the more improbable stats for the Wildcats is that they’ve won their last two games in the Breslin Center. On top of that, Northwestern has won three of its last four games against Tom Izzo. Could more magic be in store in East Lansing in early March?

No. 1: at Purdue (1.38)

At long last, the hardest game on NU’s schedule comes in Mackey Arena, where the Boilermakers have lost just four (!) games in the last three seasons. Taking down Purdue at home is certainly impressive, but to enter West Lafayette is as ghoulish task as possible for any team.

Staff Rankings